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HAVE A LONG TERM SENSIBILITY

If you take your betting seriously, you need to think long term. Build your betting bankroll, steadily increase the amount of Fixed matches sure bets on each game. And soon enough you’ll find you’re making some decent pocket money on the side. And maybe, just maybe, if you stick with it long enough, you can make a living wage out of it.

Never forget: Betting fixed matches correct odds, like any other form of serious investment, is a marathon, not a sprint. Accordingly it will take a while for your bankroll to grow. If you’re patient and successful however, the compound interest effect will be on your side. What will look like painfully slow growth initially will end up picking up a remarkable exponential dynamic.

You will have to deal with more swings, losing streaks, winning streaks, making the curve less smooth and place Fixed matches sure bets. Nevertheless the general dynamic holds true – how far you can get with 5% value is quite amazing, and doesn’t even take all that long.

START WITH A SENSIBLE BETTING BANKROLL for Fixed match sure bets

If you want to make money, you need to start with a betting bankroll capable of absorbing losses. If you’re going to bet in units, with an average bet of 1 unit, we would recommend a bankroll of at least 50 units. Minimum.

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OK so maybe you can only afford a bankroll of 1000 euro, which means your average unit will be 20. Sounds small time we know and you want to be a high roller. Well a euro1000 bankroll can quickly turn into a substantial amount with consistent value recognition and an intelligent staking plan.

Example of Fixed matches sure bets

Here is an example of how you can place Fixed matches sure bets. Lets say you bet 200 bets a year. And for argument sake lets say they are all of 1.90 odds, and lets say you hit at a 54% strike rate. Well with a fractional Kelly staking plan, at the end of those 200 bets, depending on your winning consistency which should even out over a long term, your bankroll will be in the ballpark of euro1100.00. Yeah I hear what you’re saying – that’s only 100.00 profit over the year. Well, that’s just betting 200 bets a year, with a 2.6% average return per bet.

Now imagine you bet 400 bets in a year and able to get still a modest 5% average return. That bankroll of euro1000 at the end of the 400 bets would be in the ballpark of euro1400 and at the end of 5 years that bankroll will be in the range of euro5000, and after 10 years, around euro30,000 with an average unit of 600.

Not bad is it. Of course the hard part is to get that consistent 5% return, and perhaps the harder part is grinding it out until you build that bank up over a number of years. But the point here is to show how starting out modest with a viable bankroll and staking plan, can turn into genuine profits in the long term.

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Money Management

It isn’t just all about value though – the ability to correctly manage your money is almost as important. Money management is about two fundamental goals, that partially contradict themselves:

• growing your bankroll as quickly as possible
• while avoiding bankruptcy in the process

Provided you find value regularly, your bankroll will of course grow faster with Fixed matches sure bets. But if you stake too much per bet, you risk bankruptcy. Sadly this aspect is often severely underestimated by most people. The random swings can be brutal even if you mostly place value bets. Luckily this can be handled easily by a very simple rule. Personally we would recommend you never stake more than 1-2% of your bankroll on any given bet.

If you are able to come up with a reasonably accurate estimation of your actual value, you can use the Kelly-formula to make the most of your edge – and stake ever more efficiently.

Kelly formula of Fixed match sure bets

Investors often face a tough decision when trying to decide how much money to allocate, as staking either too much or too little will result in a large impact either way.

The Kelly criterion is a money-management formula that calculates the optimal amount to ensure the greatest chance of success.

Analysis of the Results

The Kelly criterion results in the K%. Which refers to a percentage that represents the size of the portfolio to devote to each investment. Basically, the Kelly percentage provides information on how much one should diversify.

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One should not commit more than 20% to 25% of the capital into single equity regardless of what the Kelly criterion says. Since diversification itself is important and essential to avoid a large loss in the event a stock fails.

Some investors prefer to bet less than the Kelly percentage due to being risk-averse. Which is understandable, as it means that it reduces the impact of possible over-estimation and depleting the bankroll. It is known as Fractional Kelly.

On the other hand, if the Kelly percentage results in a percentage less than 0%. It means that the Kelly criterion is recommending that one walk away and not bet anything at all since the odds do not seem to be in one’s favor based on the formula and mathematical calculation.

Following the Kelly criterion typically results in success due to the formula is based on a simple formula using pure mathematics.

However, factors that can impact the success include accurate inputs of the probabilities of winning and losing, as an incorrect percentage would be detrimental.

In addition to that, there may be unexpected events such as stock market crashes. Which would impact all stocks regardless if the Kelly criterion was used or not.

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